A quick analysis of the Nevada debate and looking ahead at the upcoming Nevada & SC primaries…

1) It’s the return of the fighting Liz Warren (welcome back madam, we’ve missed you…you wiped the floor with that misogynistic billionaire gecko). Her bank account has to swell by a lot more than the three million she raised around her debate performance for her to keep competing past Super Tuesday in a strong way. But dang she came to play! And I think she might just have gotten herself a second place finish in Nevada and a third place, or even second place, finish in SC going into Super Tuesday. Interestingly enough, I think her debate performance pulled in more voters from Biden, Pete, and Amy, than it did Bernie. On that note…

2) Media pundits need to stop talking about some mythical “moderate vote” like it’s a thing. That’s not how voters vote. It’s the reason why the most popular second choice with Biden supporters for instance, is Bernie. In fact Bernie is consistently the most popular second choice of a lot of voters (barring the aspirational class, milquetoast liberals who think working class safety nets are too infra dig for them). All the candidates know this too, and it showed in how deferential they were to him overall in the debate. They see that when they try to attack Bernie, they come out on the losing end simply because Bernie has the most populist policies. He relishes it when they attack him because he gets to put his working-family-friendly message out there in response, each and every time. The ones jostling for second and third place are in a tough situation. The latest national polls show Bernie at around 32% with a double digit lead, which is insane considering how crowded this field is. But more crucially he’s also fast emerging as the runaway leader for everyone’s second choice. Now, speaking of jostling for this mythical “moderate” vote…

3) Pete and Amy resembled a couple of suburban brats arguing over who gets to drive the family’s third car for prom night…

4) I never thought I’d say this, but I really miss Andrew Yang. A truly decent human being of high integrity with some killer ideas. I hope he gets an awesome position in Bernie’s cabinet, preferably the department where he can implement his universal basic income plan.

5) And finally, looking ahead at the Nevada and SC primaries, as well as Super Tuesday: It looks like Bernie has Nevada on a lock. The only poll to come out (Data For Progress) in what is apparently a tough place to poll has Bernie running away with it, and I believe Warren in second place. Bernie is also clipping at Biden’s heels in SC (and is now tied with him nationally for the African-American vote, even edging him out in one). Biden might have just enough to hold onto SC but with Super Tuesday around the corner and Bernie projected to win pretty much all the states up for grabs there…

6) Bernie should not only be heading towards a big plurality, but likely a straight up majority come Milwaukee. Barring some major rigging by Democratic Party elites (which sadly, even Warren seems somewhat amenable to), or any rogue elements of the elite classes outright assassinating him, Bernie’s campaign has this one locked down. They have the money to spend with a grassroots fundraising machine that keeps going. More importantly, they have the largest, most committed base of supporters and volunteers, larger than probably that of all the other candidates combined. He’s going to become the nominee.

And he’s going to wipe the floor with Trump come November.

7 reasons why Bernie will be President in 2020 (with one crucial, conspiracy-laden caveat)

The last election cycle, I called it for Trump almost 6 months before he beat Hillary to get elected president. (May 27, 2016 to be exact if you want to check out the archives).

This time around, well before Super Tuesday in the Democratic primaries, I’m laying it out a whole 9 months ahead of time when predicting that Bernie will win the whole damn thing come November 2020…with one really important (some would say, conspiracy-laden) caveat right at the end.

So here’s 7 reasons why Bernie will be President of these United States:

(1) The egos of the various centrist establishment candidates (and their media acolytes) vying for the “moderate” liberal vote will help him win the primaries. The biggest difference this time around in the primaries is that the establishment centrist wing of the party (that is beholden to the parasitic elites in the same way establishment Republicans are) is quite fragmented. And the egos of Biden, Klobuchar, Buttigieg, as well as naked power plays by actual members of the parasitic class like Bloomberg, will play a major role in ensuring Sanders gets the nomination. Alongside that…

(2) The genuine grassroots energy and strong political roots of his campaign will consolidate progressive, liberal, and independent support for a win in the generals. The Sanders campaign has a far superior grassroots game than all the others and the most committed, continuously expanding base of supporters. This is a battle-tested, fighting campaign highlighting progressive working-class issues with a well honed message of economic populism. They can win over independent working-class voters and, crucially, disinterested voters (as many say, the campaign that can win over non-voters will always win). According to Gallup, Independents are actually a much larger political grouping than either Democrats or Republicans. Bernie will win them over in large numbers because…

(3) Economic populism that benefits the working class is always going to have political traction, if not be an outright winner. As inequality rises, the working class is ripe for being organized politically via various types of populism. Often this can take on abhorrent forms of populism such as racial majoritarianism, religious fundamentalism or brute nationalism. But this is mostly because sections of the working class find anti-establishment comfort in regressive movements out of very real economic fears around sustenance, livelihood, safety, health, and more. Thus when economic populist movements, like the one Bernie is riding to the White House, get their message on point without ideological baggage and bullshit identity politics – they win.

And not only will they win, but moving forward…

(4) Bernie’s campaign can find common ground on a number of key issues with independents, including centrist and right-wing independents. This is an extension of the previous point from a slightly different perspective. There are many people out there, identifying as neither conservative or liberal (and certainly not as socialist or progressive) who will still be keen on having a less militaristic, less internationally interventionist US, who will fight against the emergence of a police state, who are against the various industrial-complexes, who despise big corporations and the parasitic elite classes. Now, make no mistake – many of these people might have social, cultural, or religious views that progressives like myself might disagree quite vehemently with. But when it comes to nutritious sustenance, safe housing, access to quality healthcare, and a livable wage income, we will all find great congruence. That’s economic populism for you, and when it comes to that…

(5) Bernie himself has shown rock solid consistency for decades as an economic populist and working class champion. This is something his rivals cannot touch him on. He has been consistent for decades on advocating for issues that benefit working families and the impoverished. He is authentic and real because he actually believes in basic issues of sustenance, livelihood, and quality of life like Medicare for All, a livable Minimum Wage, expanding Social Security, and affordable housing.

And to be sure, there is hardly anything hammer and sickle about that – the United States will continue being a very, very capitalist country. Because…

(6) He is actually much more of a social democrat than a democratic socialist. It makes me laugh when mainstream pundits call Bernie a hardcore socialist or, in some ludicrous instances, a communist. It shows such a rudimentary understanding of political science and economics alike that they ought to be fired and mocked. (The glorified airplane magazine and Clinton mouthpiece known as MSNBC is high up on this list). I mean, Bernie’s not even a democratic socialist really, and much more of a social democrat. This actually worries me a bit in terms of his amenability to dilute his signature policies, but it will probably help him assuage some fears that moderate liberals populating the aspirational classes might have about his presidency. Thankfully his campaign seems to have steered clear of such debates around ideological classification. They matter little in terms of regular working folk paying the bills and leading a safe, healthy life. This is primarily a grassroots, working-class-centered campaign and it’s messaging is around issues that directly benefit working families in the US. But beyond this very real and meaningful economic populism that helps the majority of people in the country…

(7) Like Obama, Bernie is also riding a demographic wave in the United States towards ever-increasing ethno-racial, religious, social, and cultural diversity (but with a very crucial difference). Bernie is leading among people of color, youth, women, religious minorities, and other key demographics. Obama did too. Though there’s no way he would have made it without being anointed early on by the elites – and this is the big difference between Bernie and Barack that gets missed by woke white liberals who get misty-eyed about Obama’s history-making presidency. Bernie is riding that same demographic wave, but is doing so because his economic populist messaging and clear cut policies directly benefit working families who are at the center of that societal shift. This makes him very dangerous in the eyes of the predatory, parasitic capitalist class.

Which brings me to the all-important caveat we need to watch out for and that’s…

Some kind of attempt on his life from the various actors who feel like they have a lot to lose with him winning, maybe even making it look like a health issue since he’s 78. Now I will admit that in tone, this is veering close to aluminum hat wearing territory, but the entrenched elites have all done a lot worse if history is any guide. This is mostly fearful speculation, but at this stage in his campaign it is only some kind of serious hit on his health that can prevent Bernie from being elected to the White House. I am marginally suspicious of foul play with his heart attack itself, but that’s just because I think it’s important to question everything. At this stage, the elites would have to eliminate him to prevent him from becoming president – such is the strength of his grassroots campaign. And elites across the world and across history have done far worse to preserve their ill-gotten gains.

So the #Bernie2020 campaign leaders had better ensure they protect our guy.

Cos if all goes well, we’re getting ourselves a dyed in the wool progressive in the White House and a fighting chance at some serious benefits for working families.

~*~

 

[Note: image above has been reproduced from Wikimedia commons under free and fair licensing terms, photo is by Gage Skidmore, retouched by Wugapodes.]