(1) Any person of a rational mind and scientific temper would agree that this is not so much a conflict between near peer adversaries as much as it is a brutal, one-sided terror campaign by a powerful oppressor, resulting in occasional terroristic blowback from militants resisting said oppression.
(2) You see those spikes in the red injury graphs for Palestinians? That’s the policy of Israeli soldiers deliberately targeting and disabling Palestinian protesters. It’s quite representative of the larger history of this occupation prior as well.
(3) Occupation, apartheid, and colonization will have blowback, including the terroristic kind. This graph will look a little different after it’s updated for 2023, taking into account the nearly 1500 Israeli deaths that have already taken place (even before the ground invasion of Gaza has started).
(4) The slight equalizing of the playing field in asymmetric warfare means that the oppressed are able to hit back at their oppressor in ways that can genuinely hurt. This includes war crimes committed by militants in order for their oppressors to feel a fraction of the war crimes the oppressed faced.
(5) Except now – as displayed by Hamas’ strategic sophistication in it’s terror operation – the oppressed are able to access a variety of tactical options with greater ease.
(6) Failing to take this into context will result in nothing more than bloodshed. This cycle of unequal violence cannot be resolved with more terrorism by the oppressor state, such as what Israel is nakedly attempting right now. It’s strategically impossible to completely oppress a people. At some point in time the costs of survival for the oppressed outweigh the benefits, which results in the inevitable violent pushback.
(7) Ceasefire, negotiations, compromise, and the difficult work of moving from occupation and apartheid to a shaky, very unequal democracy is the only way forward. The Israeli state is suffering from a hubris that is going to take a lot of Palestinians and Israelis down with it.
(8) Only the citizens of Israel can prevent this cycle of self destruction. This is not a large country, population wise, and cannot actually afford to be dragged into a lengthy multi front war. Iran and Hezbollah have been very clear in their intentions to draw more battle lines with Israel should they move forward with a full fledged ground invasion of Gaza.
(9) Sadly it doesn’t look very optimistic at the moment as Israel seems hell bent on invading, maybe even completely re-occupying, Gaza. Netanyahu and his gang are practically salivating at the opportunity to warmonger again (thereby also ensuring Bibi doesn’t go to prison on corruption charges).
(10) This will result in a protracted, potentially multi-front war that Israel can only fight with much more direct help from the US. That’s not good for the prospects of a more peaceful world.
(11) Also, America’s support for Israel is not as much of a long term given as it once was. America’s anti-war factions across the political spectrum are only growing. Israel should pay heed to this and stop the madness.
***
Broken Shackles Media | Citizen Journalism | Oct 15 2023
love liberation struggle 