A fascinating development was reported recently by Al Jazeera about the ongoing civil war in Myanmar:
A coalition known as the Three Brotherhood Alliance officially joined the coalition of regional ethnic paramilitaries and the people’s defense forces against the junta, by capturing Chin Shwe Haw, a key military town in the northern Shan state, bordering China.
The plan, according to an official statement from the alliance, was to “assert and defend territory against Myanmar military incursions, eradicate ‘oppressive military dictatorship’, and combat online fraud along the border”
Yup, you heard that last part right “combat online fraud along the border” – and this is where China comes in, helping an alliance of paramilitaries fight a junta that is essentially a Chinese vassal state.
According to the report:
“Made up of the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), Ta’Ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) and Arakan Army (AA), the alliance is part of a coalition of seven ethnic armed organisations which maintain close ties with China and have bases or territories near the country’s border.
A particular target of the operation is the cyber-scamming industry that has boomed in autonomous militarised zones on Myanmar’s eastern border since the February 2021 military coup, generating billions of dollars for Chinese gangs working in collaboration with the Myanmar military, its proxies and other armed groups.
A United Nations report published in August found that an estimated 120,000 people had been trafficked into the industry in Myanmar, where they are forced to scam people around the world and are subject to abuses including torture, sexual violence and other forms of “cruel, inhuman and degrading treatment”.
The industry has ensnared Chinese nationals as victims of both trafficking and scamming, and over the past year, the Chinese government has exerted increasing pressure on the Myanmar military to crack down. In recent months, China also launched a series of cross-border operations resulting in the arrest and repatriation of more than 4,500 people, according to a report published last month by the Institute for Strategy and Policy-Myanmar, an independent think tank.
While Operation 1027 offers the potential to help advance China’s objectives in relation to the cyber-scamming industry, analysts say it could also give new energy to Myanmar’s anti-coup movement, also known as the Spring Revolution, which aims to remove the military regime and establish a federal democratic union.”
One wonders if China is, both, flexing and hedging at the same time.
Does China see the tide shifting in favor of the resistance and against the junta?
It’s possible, because this is not really a proxy war between a Chinese-supported junta and Western-backed paramilitaries. The resistance is pretty much on it’s own, barring backdoor support from marginal Western policy and military actors. Myanmar doesn’t matter as much to Western state powers as Ukraine or Israel-Palestine do.
China can exert its sphere of influence very easily towards the resistance and it’s exiled National Unity Government, i.e. essentially playing both sides and hedging their bets. The NUG and the various paramilitaries will gladly take Chinese support if it means getting rid of the junta. They just have to convince China that they will indeed remain a very junior partner of China’s following the establishment of a new government.
***
Broken Shackles Media | Citizen Journalism | Nov 8 2023
love liberation struggle 