As the war enters its winter torpor, the gains for Ukraine are so small (in blue) that one needs to zoom in to see it on the interactive map updated by the Institute of War Study .
Below is a map of what it looked like in the summer of this year, a few months back. Scant changes, as one can see.
Proving, yet again, that defending territory is much easier than retaking territory through counter-offensive measures.
Call me crazy, but I think Putin’s strategy looks to be holding onto the erstwhile Ukrainian territories that have a majority or plurality of Russian speakers, maybe holding out long enough to take Odessa, then calling it mission accomplished.
Zelensky is fast running out of support for his counter-offensive, especially given the scant territorial gains. The hubris of Western media pundits and policy makers was showcased here, deeply underestimating the ability of Russia to defend it’s gains, and overestimating Ukraine’s ability to to regain its lost territory.
Ukraine and Russia are not as unequal as Hamas and Israel, but Ukraine is not a near peer adversary of Russia like it was made out to be, and most definitely not without US support.
With a rabid, revenge-driven Israel now competing with Ukraine for American military aid, things aren’t looking good for Ukraine’s prospects of gaining a whole lot more territory.
People in the West, and certainly in Ukraine, might not like to hear this – but it might be wise to call it a valiant stalemate, and start media spins respectively to save face.
Unless they – Putin, Zelensky, his Western backers – are all cool with more bloodshed. Which they well might be.
One can only hope saner heads will prevail.
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Broken Shackles Media | Citizen Journalism | Nov 6 2023
love liberation struggle 